The future development trend of steel industry
The "2014-2018 China Steel Industry Development Prospect and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report" released by the Prospective Industry Research Institute pointed out that affected by the downturn in the macroeconomic situation and the increase in the uncertainty of global economic operation, the development of China's steel industry has encountered certain difficulties, mainly manifested as serious overcapacity, sluggish downstream demand, poor exports, falling steel product prices, and declining economic benefits of enterprises. According to the industry development cycle and a series of problems faced by the current steel industry, it is expected that the development of the steel industry in the next five to ten years will be a process of "gradually digesting production capacity, actively optimizing the structure, and vigorously expanding technology", with the in-depth implementation and promotion of the national steel "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". The steel industry is expected to gradually get rid of the passive situation at this stage within five to ten years.
First, the market demand is growing at a low rate
The process of urbanization and industrialization continues to drive steel demand. In 2011, China's urbanization rate reached 51.2%, from the standard of 70% of developed countries still have a lot of space, the "18th National Congress" report proposed to continue to vigorously promote the urbanization process, vigorously improve the service level of urban infrastructure, is a good signal for the steel industry. China is still in the middle of industrialization, in 2011 China's tertiary industry added value accounted for 43%, from the late industrialization of more than 50% of the reference standard is still a considerable distance, with China's current industrialization speed, it still takes at least 10 years to complete industrialization, steel consumption will still maintain growth momentum during this period.
Per capita steel consumption continues to rise, and China's current per capita steel consumption is still far from developed countries. Taking the United States as an example, in the 70s the United States entered the late industrialization, the annual per capita steel consumption reached 711 kg, the average annual growth rate was about 5%, and in 2009, China's per capita steel consumption was only 416 kg, if measured at an average annual growth rate of 5%, it still takes about 12 years to reach the per capita steel consumption level of the United States in the 70s.
Forecast figures show that China's steel demand will show a slight growth trend in the next 5-10 years. China's steel industry "Twelfth Five-Year" plan predicts that China's crude steel demand may enter the peak arc peak area during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", the highest peak may appear between 2015 and 2020, the peak is about 7.7~820 million tons, compared with the current increase of 0.7-120 million tons. worldsteel forecasts that China's steel demand will rise to 908 million tonnes in 2020 from 476 million tonnes in 2008, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%.
Second, the pressure of overcapacity has gradually eased
During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China's steel industry will continue to digest excess capacity, mainly through eliminating backward production capacity and promoting mergers and acquisitions at the national level.
First, the elimination of backward production capacity into a difficult period, conducive to the withdrawal of backward production capacity from the market, steel "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" proposed, continue to strictly implement energy conservation, land, environmental protection and other laws and regulations, comprehensive use of differential electricity prices, financial incentives, assessment accountability and other legal means, economic means and necessary administrative means, increase the elimination of backward production capacity, announce the elimination of backward production capacity enterprises